Democrats Flip Iowa Seat Trump Won by Double Digits, Stunning GOP

In 2024, Donald Trump carried Iowa’s 1st state Senate District by 11 points. But in a surprise turn during Tuesday’s special election, Democrat Catelin Drey secured a decisive 10-point win, marking a stunning 21-point swing toward Democrats since the last presidential contest.

Drey defeated Republican contender Christopher Prosch to claim the seat previously held by the late GOP state Senator Rocky De Witt. In 2022, De Witt had unseated a Democratic incumbent by roughly 10 points, highlighting just how significant this reversal is for the district.

The upset victory also ends the supermajority Iowa Senate Republicans have enjoyed since 2022. With the new balance of power, Republican senators will now need at least one Democratic vote to confirm Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees, forcing a degree of bipartisan cooperation.

This race was the fourth special election held in Iowa this year, and the results have not favored the GOP. Democrats have now flipped multiple seats, including one race where a Republican incumbent was ousted 52–48. In each contest, Democrats have dramatically outperformed their 2024 baseline—by 24, 25, and 26 points respectively.

The Iowa trend mirrors what’s happening nationally. According to The Downballot, Democrats running in special elections across the country have been outperforming the party’s 2024 presidential results by an average of 16 points, signaling strong momentum heading into 2026.