New research suggests the world may have reached a “tipping point,” making solar power inevitably our primary source of energy

The world may have reached a pivotal moment where solar energy is set to become the dominant power source, according to new research.

The study, which uses a data-driven approach to model technology and economic trends, predicts that solar photovoltaic (PV) systems will likely take the lead in global energy production before 2050—even without significant shifts in climate policies.

Despite this optimistic outlook, the research identifies four critical obstacles that could slow this transition: ensuring stable power grids, securing financing for solar projects in developing regions, bolstering supply chains, and addressing political resistance in areas facing job losses.

The researchers argue that addressing these barriers through targeted policies may be more effective than relying solely on carbon taxes or similar financial mechanisms to speed up the clean energy shift.

The study, conducted by teams at the University of Exeter and University College London, forms part of the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) initiative. This project is funded by the UK Government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF).

“The recent advancements in renewable energy mean projections dominated by fossil fuels are no longer plausible,” explained Dr. Femke Nijsse from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute. “In short, we have avoided a ‘business as usual’ scenario in the power sector.”

She added, “Older models often consider innovation as an external factor, but innovation is deeply interconnected with the economy. As technologies are deployed, companies learn to operate more efficiently, creating a cycle of progress.”

“When you incorporate this cycle into projections, you can better reflect the rapid growth of solar in the last decade and its expected future expansion. Many traditional models also incorrectly assume an ‘end of learning’, while we are still witnessing significant advancements in solar technology.”

Using three models that emphasize these feedback loops, the researchers project that solar PV will dominate the global energy landscape by mid-century.

However, they caution that a solar-centric electricity system could become “locked into setups that are neither resilient nor sustainable,” especially if fossil fuels remain a fallback for power generation.

Governments should focus policies on tackling the four main obstacles rather than merely accelerating the adoption of solar energy:

• Grid Resilience: Solar power generation is inherently variable, fluctuating with day-night cycles, seasons, and weather. Dr. Nijsse highlighted the importance of building grids capable of managing this variability. “Without proper systems in place, reliance on fossil fuels may persist as a backup,” she noted. Measures to enhance resilience include investments in complementary renewables like wind power, interregional transmission lines, advanced electricity storage solutions, and policies to optimize demand, such as encouraging off-peak electric vehicle charging. Early-stage subsidies and research funding are vital for establishing such resilient grids.

• Access to Finance: The expansion of solar energy hinges on adequate financing. Currently, low-carbon investments are concentrated in wealthier nations. Even international funding often prioritizes middle-income regions, leaving lower-income countries—particularly in Africa—with limited access to solar financing despite their significant potential for investment.

• Supply Chains: Transitioning to a solar-dominated energy system will demand substantial quantities of critical minerals and metals. Electrification and battery production require raw materials like lithium and copper. As nations ramp up decarbonization efforts, renewable technologies are expected to account for 40% of total mineral demand for copper and rare earth elements, 60-70% for nickel and cobalt, and nearly 90% for lithium by 2040.

• Political Opposition: Resistance from declining industries could hinder progress. The speed of the transition is influenced not only by economic factors but also by policymakers’ willingness to address the concerns of affected regions. A swift transition risks displacing approximately 13 million workers in fossil fuel-related industries worldwide. Policies supporting regional development and equity can help mitigate opposition and reduce risks linked to this transition.

Dr. Nadia Ameli from UCL’s Institute for Sustainable Resources commented on the financial challenge, saying, “Although the falling global costs of renewables have raised hopes for easier decarbonization in developing nations, persistent hurdles remain, especially in ensuring equitable access to capital.” She emphasized the importance of appropriate financing to accelerate global efforts toward decarbonization.

The research, published in the journal Nature Communications, is titled “The momentum of the solar energy transition.”

EEIST’s contributing authors come from various institutions. For full affiliations, visit www.eeist.co.uk.

The study represents the authors’ perspectives and does not necessarily reflect the views of the UK government, CIFF, or any affiliated organizations.

Later this year, during COP28, a University of Exeter-led research team will release the first Global Tipping Points Report. This comprehensive assessment will examine both climate tipping points and potential positive tipping points to address the climate crisis.

Research Resources; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41971-7
Image Source; Unsplash