While a majority of Americans see the economy worsening, a poll shows that Republicans don’t feel the same way

A majority of Americans think the economy is deteriorating rather than improving, despite a dramatic shift in Republican perspectives since Donald Trump secured re-election.

One month into Trump’s second term, a Harris poll found that 51% of Americans believe the U.S. economy is declining, while just 20% see improvement, and 29% feel conditions remain unchanged.

The findings paint a challenging picture for Trump’s administration but also highlight the depth of his support and how his return to office has led to a significant shift in economic perceptions among voters.

Currently, 39% of Republicans believe the economy is on the upswing—an increase from just 8% in May last year. Meanwhile, only 26% think it’s getting worse, a sharp drop from the 70% who felt that way previously.

Among Democrats, 69% now say the economy is worsening, up from 36% last May. Only 11% believe it’s improving, a decline from 32% last year.

Independents’ views have remained relatively steady, with 12% saying the economy is getting better (compared to 11% in May) and 56% believing it’s worsening (down slightly from 59%).

Official economic indicators tell a different story, with low unemployment, strong stock markets, and slowing inflation. Yet, many Americans continue to incorrectly assume the country is in a recession.

Currently, 43% of Republicans believe the U.S. is in recession, down from 67% last year. This change in sentiment stands out when compared to independents (46% now versus 53% in May) and Democrats (49% now compared to 50%).

Voter dissatisfaction with the economy played a crucial role in the 2024 election outcome. The latest Harris poll reinforces how political allegiance strongly influences economic perceptions.

Support for Trump’s tariffs also falls along party lines, with Democrats expressing the most concern over their economic impact. However, even among independents and a portion of Republicans, skepticism remains.

Nearly half (49%) of respondents believe tariffs will hurt the economy. Among Republicans, 43% see them as beneficial, while only 17% of Democrats and 19% of independents share that view. Meanwhile, 28% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats, and 54% of independents anticipate a negative impact.

Despite unwavering loyalty from core supporters, Trump’s return to the White House hasn’t inspired universal confidence in his economic policies.

“Public perception of the economy has turned into a political tug-of-war—shifting dramatically based on which party holds power,” said John Gerzema, CEO of Harris Poll. “The real test will be whether the administration can maintain its base’s confidence and sway undecided voters as it rolls out its ambitious agenda.”

The ongoing belief that the U.S. is in a recession underscores a persistent gap between official data and public sentiment. While the country has not been in a recession since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, many Americans still feel financially strained.

Frustration over inflation was likely a key factor in the election outcome, as rising prices have remained a major concern for voters.

Trump campaigned as the change candidate for his second term, criticizing Biden and Kamala Harris for economic struggles and promising to restore financial stability. So far, however, optimism appears limited mostly to Republicans, with Democrats and independents remaining doubtful.

This divide is especially evident in attitudes toward tariffs. Trump has called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” and vowed to reshape U.S. trade relations.

He has followed through on this promise—delaying a planned 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports but implementing a broad 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. Additionally, his administration has pledged to introduce reciprocal tariffs against countries deemed to be engaging in unfair trade practices.

Trump has acknowledged that tariffs may cause “some pain” but insists the long-term economic benefits will outweigh any initial struggles.

However, few Americans share his optimism. Just 26% believe Trump’s tariffs will have a positive impact on the U.S. economy, and confidence is even lower when it comes to personal finances. Only 33% of Republicans think tariffs will improve their personal financial situation, compared to 52% of Democrats and 45% of independents who expect negative effects.

Despite months of discussion, many Americans (40%) still misunderstand how tariffs work, mistakenly believing that exporting countries pay the costs. In reality, tariffs are paid by U.S. companies importing foreign goods. Republicans (48%) are the most likely to hold this misconception, compared to 32% of Democrats and 39% of independents.

Even with stronger Republican support for tariffs, the broader outlook on the economy remains grim. Over half (60%) of Americans expect the U.S. to enter a recession in 2025, including 43% of Republicans and 62% of independents.

Media coverage of the economy has also become increasingly polarized. Democrats and independents believe the economic situation is worse than how it’s portrayed in the media (69% and 66%, respectively, versus 60% of the general population). Meanwhile, Republicans believe the media is underplaying the economy’s strength (56% versus 40% of the general population).

This political shift is evident in changing perceptions. Currently, 56% of Republicans think the economy is better than what the media reports, a significant jump from 26% last year. In contrast, just 31% of Democrats feel the same way, down from 55% in May 2024.

The Harris Poll survey was conducted online from February 13–15, 2025, among a nationally representative sample of 2,131 U.S. adults.

Source: The Harris Poll. Note: Survey of 2,131 US adults from 13 to 15 of February 2025.